If you read any of the major political blogs, or follow much of Mainstream Political Media, you will have noticed the polling frenzy taking place. You will have seen so many polls and analyzes of polls that your head is probably spinning. I find them as interesting as anyone and love following the trends in the horse race, but is this a good thing for democracy? Not to mention, publishing the results of early voting, which gives later voters the advantage of knowing where the race actually stands when they vote.
I would argue that publishing the results of polls, and even worse early voting results, unduly influences public opinion, suppresses turnout, discourages substantive debate and adds to the divisiveness of our politics. First, many voters stay home because the polls show the election is already decided, thereby suppressing turnout. Second, when a voter knows who is leading in a race there can be a bandwagon effect. There may also be other effects on the strategic decision making for voters as it relates to third parties.
Third, it encourages the media to obsess over the horse race rather than analyze actual policies, which discourages substantive debate. Fourth, the worst of all, is the constant slicing and dicing of the electorate into voting groups based on race, sex, income, education, region and religious affiliation. It just adds to the perceived divisions in the country.
My friend recently reminded me of an interesting aspect of the Italian political system. According to the Italian par condicio law, it is forbidden to publish any opinion polling in the 15 days which precede the election.
I propose we do as the Italians do. Im sure there will be 1st amendment challenges and the polling and news industry would go nuts, but if it can survive those legal challenges, I think it would be a wise thing to do. Granted the Italians don't have the greatest political system in the world, but in this case I think they are right to prohibit opinion polls on the eve of elections.
UPDATE: Just by coincidence, Slate just considered this very question!
I would argue that publishing the results of polls, and even worse early voting results, unduly influences public opinion, suppresses turnout, discourages substantive debate and adds to the divisiveness of our politics. First, many voters stay home because the polls show the election is already decided, thereby suppressing turnout. Second, when a voter knows who is leading in a race there can be a bandwagon effect. There may also be other effects on the strategic decision making for voters as it relates to third parties.
Third, it encourages the media to obsess over the horse race rather than analyze actual policies, which discourages substantive debate. Fourth, the worst of all, is the constant slicing and dicing of the electorate into voting groups based on race, sex, income, education, region and religious affiliation. It just adds to the perceived divisions in the country.
My friend recently reminded me of an interesting aspect of the Italian political system. According to the Italian par condicio law, it is forbidden to publish any opinion polling in the 15 days which precede the election.
I propose we do as the Italians do. Im sure there will be 1st amendment challenges and the polling and news industry would go nuts, but if it can survive those legal challenges, I think it would be a wise thing to do. Granted the Italians don't have the greatest political system in the world, but in this case I think they are right to prohibit opinion polls on the eve of elections.
UPDATE: Just by coincidence, Slate just considered this very question!
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2 comments:
I'd have to disagree. I live in a very "blue" state so it doesn't matter how I vote. But if I lived in a "battleground" state, I'd want to know how the vote is trending before I cast my vote. Do I have the luxury of a third-party vote, or is there a danger of McCain winning my state? I dislike Obama's plans, but I abhor and fear McCain's plans - so if my vote were needed to prevent the worst from happening, I'd have voted Obama.
Silouan,
Your response goes exactly to my point. I think strategic voting, as you suggest you would do, undermines the authenticity of the result. It creates a disadvantage to voting early! It also encourages you to vote, not based on your top choice, but on how you can use your vote most effectively given the information that you have.
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